The longer his tenure, the more likely
he is to become Europe's elder statesman. This is a maneuver
reminiscent of Louis-Napoleon's following the Crimean War, when he
teamed up with Great Britain against Russia.
Like Putin, Napoleon III modernized and professionalized his army. But,
unlike Putin hitherto, he actually went to war (against Austria), moved
by his (oft-thwarted) colonial and mercantilist aspirations. Putin is
likely to follow the same path (probably in Central Asia, but,
possibly, in the Baltic and east Europe as well). Reinvigorated armies
(and industrialists) often force expansionary wars upon their reluctant
ostensible political masters.
Should Putin fail in his military adventures as Napoleon III did in his
and be deposed as he was - these eerie similarities will have come to
their natural conclusion.
T H E A U T H O R
SHMUEL (SAM) VAKNIN
Curriculum Vitae
Born in 1961 in Qiryat-Yam, Israel.
Served in the Israeli Defence Force (1979-1982) in training and
education units.
Education
Graduated a few semesters in the Technion - Israel Institute of
Technology, Haifa.
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